I actually did a mass refresh of the tavern and investigated the number of times historical generals appeared.

The following probabilities are based on these.
(Therefore, note that it is not a probability that is defined as a specification.)

Test 1: 100 Refreshes per Tavern Level

Increasing the level of the tavern increases the probability of the historic general appearing, but at what level and at what rate?

In fact, i conducted 100 refreshes for each level of the tavern to determine the number of times the historic general appeared.

* If tavern level is 10 or below, historic generals will not appear. Only white (common) or green (uncommon) generals will appear. (Reference: Types of rarity of generals)

* Tavern level 20 and below has not yet been investigated.

Test 1 Results

• Tavern Level 21 -> Blue 23% Purple 1% Gold 1%
• Tavern Level 22 -> Blue 32% Purple 0% Gold 2%
• Tavern Level 23 -> Blue 49% Purple 7% Gold 0%
• Tavern Level 24 -> Blue 46% Purple 9% Gold 2%
• Tavern Level 25 -> Blue 50% Purple 5% Gold 2%
• Tavern Level 26 -> Blue 60% Purple 3% Gold 3%
• Tavern Level 27 -> Blue 68% Purple 7% Gold 2%
• Tavern Level 28 -> Blue 81% Purple 5% Gold 5%
• Tavern Level 29 -> Blue 86% Purple 10% Gold 5%
• Tavern Level 30 -> Blue 106% Purple 8% Gold 4%

*The probability is unknown, but I’ve been informed that they have appeared at levels 13, 14, 17, 18, 20, 23. 😃

The gold historic general also appeared at tavern level 21, but if you wanted to search for it with a serious Gem refreshment, tavern level 24 and above would be a good place to start.

In my test result, it was as above, but it is good to think that the probability is about 3 to 5% because there is a fluctuation in the probability.

Reference: About Blue Historic General

For more on the Blue Historic General, see this article.

• What is Historic General

Test2: 3,400 refreshes for 170,000 gems

At tavern level 30, 3,400 refreshes were made with gems within 5 hours.

Date of implementation: 9/20/2021
( = before Martinus, Minamoto no Yoshitsune, etc. were added to the tavern)

Test2 Results

Number of times/probability of getting a Golden Historic General

• 10,000 gems (200 refreshes): 5 people -> 2.5%
• 70,000 gems (1,400 refreshes): 35 people -> 2.5%
• 130,000 gems (2,600 refreshes): 60 people -> 2.3%
• 170,000 gems (3,400 refreshes): 75 people-> 2.2%

Generals who appeared

The probability at tavern level 30 was 4% in test 1, but went from 2.5% to 2.2% in test 2.

While this is a decrease from the results of test 1, it is not surprising that there is some fluctuation.

Special note 1: Decrease in probability

However, what is more interesting is that the probability decreased with each refresh.(2.5% -> 2.2%)

I don’t know if this is a coincidence or a specification.

However, after this, I stopped refreshing a lot at once. I don’t recommend it to my readers either.

Special Note 2: Bias of Generals Appearing

There was one more interesting point.

That is, there was a bias in the number of generals that appeared frequently at a given time. (Or a certain number of updates?).

For example, in this case, the bias changed as shown below.
(Please refer to the image above as well)

Baibars -> King Sejong -> Khalid

Actually, what I really wanted during this test was Queen Jindeok, but she didn’t appear even though I spent 170,000 gems at once.

In short, it seems that no matter how many times you update, if it’s not the right time, it won’t appear.

For these things, I recommend that you refresh no more than 100 times a day, and if you don’t get any good generals, change the day.

Conclusion

– If you are looking for generals with serious gem refreshment, I recommend tavern level 24 or higher.

– The chance of getting a golden historic general is about 3-5%.

– I recommend that you refresh at most 100 times a day, and if you don’t get any good generals, change the day.

Reference: About Generals Appearing in the Tavern

Note that only a few of the golden historic generals appear in the tavern. The list below summarizes who appears in the tavern, so please refer to it.

• List of Generals by Role (+ How to Get)

Reference: About Generals to be Employed

Also, the majority of golden historical generals that appear in the tavern are useless. The following is a summary of who the generals to hire, so please refer to it.

• List of Best Generals